How to calculate expected value in crash games?
Expected Value (EV) calculations help you understand the long-term cost of playing crash: Basic EV Formula: EV = (Probability of Win × Win Amount) - (Probability of Loss × Loss Amount). For a specific cashout target (e.g., 2.00x with 1% house edge): Probability of winning: 99%/2 = 49.5%. Win amount: Bet × (2.00 - 1) = Bet × 1.00. Probability of losing: 50.5%. Loss amount: Bet × 1.00. EV = (0.495 × 1.00) - (0.505 × 1.00) = -0.01 = -1% of bet. Key insight: Regardless of your cashout target, the EV is always -1% (for 1% house edge). At 1.50x target: EV = (0.66 × 0.50) - (0.34 × 1.00) = -0.01. At 10.00x target: EV = (0.099 × 9.00) - (0.901 × 1.00) = -0.01. Practical implications: Over 1000 bets of $1 each, you'll lose approximately $10 on average. The variance (how much your actual results deviate) increases with higher targets. Lower targets give more consistent (but still negative) results. Using EV for decision-making: Compare house edges across platforms. Factor in rakeback/VIP rewards (can make EV positive). Calculate the cost of entertainment per hour.
